United States-Israel-Iran and allied tensions
Al Qaeda’s second highest leader killed in Iran
On November 13, the New York Times reported that Al-Qaeda’s second highest leader- Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah who went by the name Abu Mohammed al-Masri- the mastermind of the 1998 U.S embassy bombings in Dar es Salaam and Nairobi was killed in Iran, three months ago. His daughter- the widow of Osama Bin Laden’s son- was also killed along with him.
U.S officials told the New York Times that Israeli operatives killed al-Masri at the behest of the United States. Israel’s Channel 12 said that they were Mossad agents. Another Israeli broadcaster- Channel 13- said that they could be foreign agents who were activated by Israel. Channel 12, quoting unnamed intelligence sources, said that al-Masri was planning attacks against Israeli & Jewish targets across the world & that the U.S and Israel had “shared interest” in the elimination of an “arch terrorist.”
Al Masri was known to be one of the founding members of Al Qaeda and was next in line to take over the organization’s leadership. Soon after the news of his killing came out, news organizations associated with the Iranian leadership- from Iran to Lebanon- said that the father and daughter shot by Israeli operatives in Tehran was a Lebanese history professor Habib Daoud- who also happened to be a member of Hezbollah & his daughter. But, Lebanese sources told the NYT that there was actually no Habib Daoud & that it was an alias given to al-Masri by Iranian officials.
Iran, meanwhile, said that it had no Al Qaeda terrorists living in the country. The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson also added that Washington & Tel Aviv were trying to associate Iran with such groups by lying to the media to avoid responsibility for the group’s criminal activities & other terrorist groups in the region.
Trump sought options to attack Iran
To add to the tensions in relations between Tehran & Washington, Reuters reported that U.S President Donald Trump had sought options, last week, to attack Iran’s main nuclear site but ultimately decided against it. His advisors reportedly persuaded him against a potential attack because of the risk of a broader regional conflict.
Trump apparently sought options a day after a UN report said that Iran had moved a cascade of centrifuges from an above ground plant to an underground one. The spokesperson for the Iranian mission to the United Nations- Alireza Miryousefi- said that the Iranian nuclear program is for peaceful purposes but Iran has proven to be capable of responding to any adventure by the aggressor. The Iranian government specifically also responded to the Reuters report and said that any American attack on Iran would face a “crushing response.”
Israel’s Energy Minister told Israel’s Army Radio that, “If I were the Iranians, I would not feel at ease.”
Three rockets strike Baghdad’s Green Zone
Three rockets struck Baghdad’s highly fortified Green Zone which houses foreign embassies and other government offices. Rocket attacks in the Green Zone are a typical feature of Iraq’s Iran-backed Shiite militia groups. The Popular Mobilization Forces or the PMF, which is an umbrella organization of Iraq’s Shiite militias, in October had announced a temporary halt in attacks on American targets in Iraq provided the U.S withdrew from Iraq.
The rocket attacks in Baghdad came hours after U.S’ Acting Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller announced that the U.S will withdraw troops from Iraq and Afghanistan by January 15, 2021. The spokesperson of Kataib Hezbollah, a member of the PMF whose leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was killed along with Qassem Soleimaini in January, told Al Jazeera that the Islamic resistance’s unilateral truce with the U.S is still in place & that it is not in their interest to provoke a reaction from the United States during transition period.
Context
Trump has maintained a maximum pressure against Iran, imposed sanctions, withdrew from the JCPOA and has been at odds with the Iranian regime, throughout his time in office. The U.S and Israel have tried ways to tone down Iranian influence in the region particularly in countries like Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. Tensions picked up significantly after the January 2020 assassination of Qassem Soleimaini.
The news of Trump seeking options to attack Iran’s Natanz facility put Tehran on alert. This was co-incidentally followed by the rocket attacks in Baghdad and the announcement of U.S troop withdrawal. Any potential step by Washington which will bring it at odds with Tehran will be a huge risk for the entire region and particularly for President-elect Joe Biden and his administration.
Pompeo in Israel
While tensions between Washington-Tehran and Tel Aviv-Tehran continue, U.S Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is in Israel where he is expected to take part in a trilateral meeting with his Israeli and Bahraini counterpart, who is on a day-long visit after normalizing ties with Israel. Pompeo, in a joint press conference, in Jerusalem said that, “Iran’s influence in the region is waning and that the regime will be ever more isolated, if they don’t change their ways.”
Pompeo, flouting American diplomatic norms, is also expected to visit the Golan Heights- which Israel captured from Syria during the 1967 war & the Psagot winery in occupied West Bank which was reportedly built on land the Palestinians say were stolen from them by the Israelis.
Israeli strikes positions in Syria
Ahead of Pompeo’s visit to Israel, Israeli war planes struck targets in Syria after Israeli troops discovered anti-personnel mines near its position in Golan Heights. Israel said the mines were placed by a “Syrian squad led by Iranian forces.” Syria’s state media reported that three Syrian army officers were killed in the airstrikes. Israeli military spokesperson Lt Col Jonathan Conricus said that sites belonging to Iran’s Quds Forces, the Syrian military near the airport at Damascus were targeted.
Israel’s Defence Minister Benny Gantz said that Israel will not tolerate any breach of its sovereignty, while an advisor to the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said, “We have no bases in Iraq or Syria. How can they say they hit a base belonging to Iran or Iranian affiliates?”
Palestinian Authority to resume contacts with Israel
A close aide to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas confirmed that the Palestinian Authority (PA) is due to resume coordination and talks with Israel. The PA had suspended talks and all past agreements with Israel in May after Israel’s plans of annexing the West Bank. PA’s civil affairs minister Hussain al-Sheikh said that relations with Israel will return to where it was after multiple reiterations by Israel on their commitment to agreements with the PA. Hamas and other factions have criticized the decision and said the PA is going back to cooperating with an “occupying power.”
Pompeo visits Istanbul, skips meeting the Turkish President
The U.S Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, drew the ire of the Turkish government after he visited Istanbul, as part of his seven-nation tour, but snubbed meeting either the Turkish President or any member of the Turkish government.
Pompeo met Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the leader of around Orthodox Christians and toured the nearby Rustem Pasha mosque. U.S officials said that Pompeo wanted to concentrate on issues of “religious liberty.” Ankara called the meetings as “inappropriate interference” and defended Turkey’s record of religious freedom.
Co-incidentally, Pompeo’s visit to Istanbul came a day after his remarks to French newspaper Le Figaro where he said, “French President Emmanuel Macron & I agree that Turkey’s actions have been very aggressive,” and that Washington and Paris need to work together to address concerns related to Turkey.
Assad confidante, long-time Syrian foreign minister Walid al-Muallem dies
Syrian Foreign Minister & former deputy Prime Minister Walid al-Muallem died on Monday in Damascus. He was 79. He was known to be a close confidante of President Bashar al-Assad and was the regime’s international face. He was Syria’s former ambassador to the United States and was foreign minister since 2006- practically through the war. The Syrian state news agency reported of his death without mentioning the cause- but he was reported to have been sick for a while & looked extremely weak in his last public appearance at a refugee conference in Damascus, last Wednesday.