The assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran, Israel, the nuclear deal & the world
Farnaz Fassihi, an Iranian journalist with the New York Times, rightly tweeted the state of Iran in 2020. She said, “The year 2020 for Iran started with the assassination of its top military general & it's ending with the assassination of its top nuclear scientist.” Iran was still coming to terms with the assassination of Qassem Soleimaini in Baghdad in January 2020 when the news of the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh- dubbed as the “father of Iran’s nuclear programme” by arch rival Israel- sent shockwaves in Iran & the region.
Who was Mohsen Fakhrizadeh?
A physics professor, Fakhrizadeh had reportedly led “Operation Amad” in 1989, which allegedly carried out research on making a nuclear bomb. A rather shadowy figure in the Iranian regime, he also led the Organization of Defense Innovation & Research, popularly known by the abbreviation of its Farsi name- SPND. Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, in 2018, had made a mention of Fakhrizadeh’s name & urged people to “remember the name.”
How was he killed?
When the news began trickling in, last Friday, details other than that he was assassinated wasn’t clear. Iranian media reports have also been sketchy with various versions of the assassination. But, Iran’s security chief- Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani- said that it was a remote attack using special methods & that electronic equipment was used to kill Fakhrizadeh in a town east of Tehran.
Tehran’s response
Without getting into the details, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameini said, “Iran’s first priority after the killing was the definitive punishment of the perpetrators & those who ordered it.” Blaming Israel openly, President Hassan Rouhani said, “We will respond to the assassination of martyr Fakhrizadeh in a proper time.” Warnings of a severe response- particularly directed towards Israel- came in from top Iranian defence officials & Tehran’s allies in the region like the Hezbollah in Lebanon. The highest ranks of power in Tehran have, in fact, very explicitly blamed Israel for their role in this assassination.
Implications
Fakhrizadeh’s assassination has made things all the more fragile in an already delicate time in the region. Lot of context is required to understand the possible implications & the need to keep an eye on Tehran & the region for the coming few days. The killing comes at a time when Iran was already said to have been increasing its nuclear stockpile. Iran’s defence minister, in fact, added that Tehran will “double” the SPND’s budget to continue Fakhrizadeh’s path with more speed and power. Iran’s refusal to budge from its nuclear ventures- however peaceful they claim it to be- could potentially derail US President-elect Joe Biden’s approach towards Iran. Biden wants Iran to re-enter the nuclear deal, but with Fakhrizadeh’s assassination & the present sentiments in Tehran, Iran could remain severely suspicious & cold towards Biden’s peace overtures.
Domestically, the Supreme Leader & President Rouhani are under increasing pressure to retaliate sternly This is particularly the case, given that hardliners are largely in majority in Iran’s parliament. The year has been rather embarrassing for Tehran starting from Qassem Soleimaini’s assassination, the attacks on Iran’s main nuclear site, the killing of Al Qaeda’s second highest leader, purportedly by Israel, & now the assassination of Fakhrizadeh. Iran’s almost muted response, considering the magnitude of the incident, after Soleimaini’s assassination has, in fact, raised questions on Tehran’s capabilities to respond.
The implications of the Fakhrizadeh’s assassination may not have direct but potential indirect consequences for New Delhi. India hasn’t issued a statement on the assassination, yet. India’s position on Iran, right now and the muted response can also be understood by New Delhi’s very carefully worded statement on Qassem Soleimani’s assassination. It is unlikely that India will change the tone on Fakhrizadeh, if it goes on to publicly acknowledge the killing. But, from New Delhi’s shoes, this seems to be the most feasible option in hand.
At a time when India’s ties with the Arab world- particularly the GCC countries and Israel- are at their all-time best, New Delhi may, at some point, be forced to choose a side between newly-found friends and the old, withered away friend in Tehran. India’s benefits in a non-sanctioned Iran are immense & that potential could be possibly lost, if Tehran-Washington-Tel Aviv & the Arab seats of power don’t reach a reasonable compromise.
Ankara’s new pals
Last week, Turkish President Recep Tayyıp Erdoğan’s remarks on Europe caught eyeballs across the region. He said, “We see ourselves with Europe. We contemplate to build our future with Europe.” The reactions to Erdoğan’s remarks instantly compared to his remarks from the past where he has been quoting saying that, “It is not Turkey which needs Europe, but Europe which needs us.” The Turkish Foreign Minister went a step ahead & said that, “Once we overcome the current confusion existing mostly on the European side, I believe that the historic step of Turkey’s accession to the EU can be taken.”
These remarks from Ankara come at a time when Turkey’s ties with Europe are easily at an all-time low. Turkey is in a spat with two EU members- Greece and Cyprus- over drilling & exploration rights in the Eastern Mediterranean. The crisis has evolved into a full-fledged theatre of tensions with Turkey, Greece, Cyprus & their respective allies all squabbling over the massive hydrocarbons underneath. Tensions between Ankara and Paris are rising after Erdoğan’s comments about French President Emmanuel Macron and France’s warring policy positions across the region.
Turkey’s warming up to Europe comes at an interesting time. The EU is due to host a summit on December 10 where possible sanctions against Turkey could be discussed over the latter’s unilateral actions in the Eastern Mediterranean. The EU’s approach towards Turkey has led to divisions in the bloc, with countries like Greece and Cyprus accusing Germany- believed to be one of Turkey’s biggest supporters in the EU- of appeasement & blocking actions against Turkey.
Erdoğan’s call for reforms in the country, amid growing economic woes & the possible realization of losing the majority public support, could also have made him take a softer stance towards Europe. His conservative, far-right ally- MHP & its leader Devlet Bahçeli- may not necessarily endorse Erdoğan warming up to Europe at the moment. But this is seeming to be more like a do-or-die situation for Erdoğan. So, geopolitically and domestically, Ankara’s Europe trump card could possibly turn tables around for Turkey.
This was not the only possible burying of hatchet that we saw. On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Riyadh, Saudi’s King Salman bin Abdulaziz reached out to the Turkish President & spoke over a phone call. The Turkish Presidency, in a statement, said that, “President Erdoğan and King Salman agreed to keep the channels of dialogue open to improve bilateral ties and overcome issues.”
This conversation is particularly significant because relations between Turkey and Saudi Arabia have been strained after Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s killing in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Adding to this was the informal trade embargo by Riyadh on Turkish products that was hurting Turkish exporters. Turkey’s proximity to Qatar has not been an open matter of contention but the shutting down of the Turkish military base in Qatar was one of the main demands by the Saudi-UAE-Bahrain-Egypt quartet to restore ties with Qatar. Some also look at this as some sort consolidation of powers that will be treated not-so pleasantly by the Biden administration in Washington.
Other Stories
Tensions in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)
In a bid to keep tabs on oil production in an already oversupplied market, tensions have spiked in OPEC particularly between UAE & Saudi Arabia after UAE breached its allocated production quota. So much so, there were reports of officials privately contemplating UAE’s OPEC membership.
A meeting that was convened on Monday by OPEC members to discuss future production cuts or possible relaxations was delayed by two days after member countries failed to agree on a deal.
Both, Bloomberg & the Financial Times have done some meaningful reporting on the OPEC+ tensions.
https://www.ft.com/content/56d8a692-6560-4c85-9029-08fa1e9c2101
MBS’ Qatari Gift to Biden
The Financial Times, quoting sources, reported that Saudi Arabia has stepped up efforts to resolve the crisis with Qatar. An advisor to Saudi Arabia & UAE told FT that, “Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman feels like he’s in the line of fire after Mr. Biden’s victory and wants the deal with Qatar to signal that he is ready to take steps.”
There have been multiple reiterations of intent from Riyadh, in recent times, to resolve the crisis with Qatar. Saudi Arabia along with UAE, Egypt and Bahrain snapped ties with Qatar in 2017 accusing it of promoting terrorism in the region. Qatar’s proximity to Iran & Turkey along with Al Jazeera’s Arabic reportage on the Saudis were among the many points of contention. As part of a list of 13 “unconditional” demands, the quartet sought the shutting down of Al Jazeera, the Turkish military base in Qatar which was rejected by Doha.
US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and advisor Jared Kushner is on a Middle East trip, where he is expected to meet Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman in Riyadh & Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad al Thani in the coming days. The resolution of the crisis is certainly on the cards in what is being seen as the Trump administration final attempt of a diplomatic triumph in the Middle East & uniting the GCC against Iran.