Biden & the Middle East
Joe Biden’s nomination as the Democrat candidate for the U.S presidential elections made Middle East observers evaluate his potential policies. Now, with his election to the White House, will Washington’s approach in the Middle East change significantly or will it remain as a continuation of his predecessor- Donald Trump.
One country that will see a stark difference in the American position will certainly be Iran. Trump walked out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or the JCPOA, began a maximum pressure campaign on Tehran, riddled it with sanctions & wanted to renegotiate the Obama-era nuclear deal. Biden, on the other hand, called Trump’s approach to Iran “dangerous” and has made it very clear that he will restore the nuclear deal if “Iran complies with its nuclear obligations.” While it is unclear if Biden may lift the sanctions on Iran imposed on non-nuclear issues, the massive mistrust in Tehran towards Washington and potential opposition by the Republicans in Congress & allies in the Middle East - Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel- to renegotiating the JCPOA, Biden and Iran do have a tough road ahead.
One of Donald Trump’s closest allies in the Middle East was Israel. Trump went out of his way to shore up Israeli interests. He backed a “deal of the century” between Israelis and Palestinians, which was more of a unilateral Israeli deal over the Palestinians. He supported Israel’s normalization deals with the Arab world. The US also withdrew its support for the Palestinians, moving its embassy to Jerusalem. Biden, meanwhile, has supported the normalization deals and has said that he will encourage other countries to follow suit. But, he has pledged to undo Trump’s withdrawal of aid to the Palestinians, reopening the PLO’s mission in Washington, etc. Biden has also made it clear that he is not going to move the US embassy back to Tel Aviv. Therefore, Washington’s policy towards Israel and Palestine is likely to remain the same with minor adjustments.
Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the UAE are likely to have lukewarm ties with Washington keeping present circumstances in mind. Joe Biden has vowed to prioritize human rights as part of his foreign policy, which puts Saudi Arabia and Egypt in a tough spot. Biden had criticized Trump’s “dangerous blank check” to Riyadh & on the second anniversary of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi’s death, he had said that he would review US-Saudi relations before leaving American values “at the cloakroom to sell weapons or buy oil.” To sum it up, MBS is unlikely to get unconditional support from the Biden administration. Biden has been critical of Trump’s unwavering support to Egyptian President Abdel Fateh al-Sisi whom Trump referred to as “his favourite dictator.” The new administration could likely open or push for some diplomacy between Riyadh and Tehran + Abu Dhabi and Tehran. Backdoor diplomacy is in place, already but more overt moves could be expected.
Biden has already promised to end all support to the Saudi-led coalition’s fight against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. He is likely to continue the regime of sanctions against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad while maintaining a small number of American troops in north-eastern Syria. Biden’s policy in the Levant is the most unclear one in the entire lot. However, the mood seems to be that a potential US intervention in Middle Eastern conflicts in the near future is very, very unlikely.
Washington and Ankara under Biden and Erdoğan will again not be the easiest of relationships. During Biden’s campaign, a video of him commenting on Erdoğan went viral on Turkish social media. It contained him speaking about the need to “|support opposition forces” in Turkey. Unsurprisingly, this was met with a lot of opposition by the Turkish government. A pro-government journalist, in fact, wrote on Twitter that, “Biden- the man who wanted to support opposition forces to overthrow Erdoğan- is Turkey’s enemy.” Erdoğan was one of the last leaders to congratulate Biden for his victory. Along with a congratulatory note, he also sent a thank you letter to Donald Trump.
The Biden administration will act tough with Turkey on the S-400 tests. As much as the probability of the imposition of CAATSA sanctions remain high, the chances of Ankara and Washington trying to negotiate a way out also stands. Also, if Biden continues to pursue his human rights priority policy in Turkey, the government in Ankara may end up remaining nostalgic about Trump’s days in the office. Turkey, anyway, wasn’t particularly looking forward to a Biden presidency.
All in all, the Middle East will remain the complex region it is but Biden has a lot of undoing of Trump’s policies to do. At a time when an isolationist American foreign policy was hurting the interests of all parties, a more mature, well-thought policy from Washington won’t change the dynamics of the region but could lessen the harm done.
Fall of the son-in-laws. Part 1. Gebran Bassil. Lebanon.
On Friday morning, during the run up to the US election results, Lebanon woke up to a pleasantly startling Wall Street Journal scoop. The country’s former foreign minister, President Michel Aoun’s son-in-law & head of the largest Christian party and parliamentary bloc- Gebran Bassil- was likely to be sanctioned by the United States particularly for his relations with Hezbollah.
Later, on Friday evening, the US announced sanctions against Bassil for corruption. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, in a statement, said, “The systemic corruption in Lebanon’s political system exemplified by Bassil has helped to erode the foundation of an effective government that serves the Lebanese people.” A senior US official told Reuters that Bassil’s ties with Hezbollah was every bit of the motivation to sanction him.
Gebran Bassil’s FPM- the Free Patriotic Movement- & Hezbollah are political allies in Lebanon’s multi-sectarian political system. The alliance between the two began in 2006 & FPM, in this case, extends Christian legitimacy to Hezbollah- which is designated as a terrorist organization by many countries. Recently, Bassil had even mentioned that the FPM is paying a heavy price because of its understanding with Hezbollah. “The price, even if we pay it, is the defence of Lebanon,” he said.
Gebran Bassil is married to President Aoun’s eldest daughter and is one of the President’s closest advisors. He is widely seen as Aoun’s successor to the Presidency just like he took over the party leadership from his father-in-law in 2015. So much so, Prime Minister Saad Hariri has referred to Bassil as Lebanon “shadow president.” Bassil has been Lebanon’s energy, foreign and telecom minister. He is undoubtedly one of Lebanon’s most controversial figures who was particularly targeted during last year’s October revolution & is slammed by those who oppose him, within the political circles, for corruption and monopolizing high-level appointments in the country.
In response to the United States and the sanctions, Gebran Bassil denied all corruption charges and said the sanctions were unjust & politically motivated. He also added that he will take this up in the courts and sue for damages. With reference to Hezbollah, he said that the US had only given him a deadline to cut ties with Hezbollah & mentioned nothing about corruption. US envoy to Lebanon- Dorothy Shea- in a counter to Bassil, said that he had expressed interest in cutting ties with Hezbollah and was grateful that the U.S made him realize how disadvantageous it was for the FPM to stay allies with Hezbollah. In fact, on Saturday- after his son-in-law was sanctioned, President Michel Aoun directed the foreign ministry to collect all evidence & documents that pushed the U.S treasury to sanction Gebran.
Bassil is unlikely to lose political relevance, at least for now. He is unlikely to get a ministerial position in the next Hariri government- both, the FPM & the Hezbollah didn’t back Hariri as the PM- but his presidential ambitions is likely to remain untouched by the sanctions. The sanctions could possibly embolden more Christian support for Bassil, if not otherwise.
Fall of the son-in-laws. Part 2. Berat Albayrak. Turkey.
Saturday night, Turkish President Recep Tayyıp Erdoğan removed the central bank governor Murat Uysal and appointed former finance minister Naci Ağbal as the new governor. The appointment of Ağbal reportedly triggered one of the biggest resignations from the Turkish government. Minister of Finance & Treasury and most importantly- the President’s son-in-law- announced his resignation on Sunday evening sending shockwaves across Turkey.
The reason why it was shocking was not because he was a brilliant minister but he was widely believed to be Erdoğan’s successor. He announced his resignation on Instagram and subsequently shut his Twitter and his Instagram accounts. Sunday night, when the news of Albayrak’s resignation came out, a lot of people believed his account was hacked because of the sheer grammatical errors in the resignation letter. We heard nothing from the Turkish government or the AKP, all of Monday, regarding Albayrak’s resignation. The reason why this became particularly interesting was because when Interior Minister Suleyman Soylu had previously resigned, Erdoğan made him take back his resignation overnight. Soylu and Albayrak have a feud of their own with a lot of surveys titling towards Soylu as Erdoğan’s successor.
After all the silence, Erdoğan appointed former deputy PM Lütfi Elvan as the next finance minister, relieved his son-in-law of his duties and appreciated him for ensuring that the Turkish economy suffered the least minimum damage during the pandemic. Turkish Lira and stocks, meanwhile, rallied after Albayrak’s resignation and the change in guard in the Turkish Central Bank.
Multiple speculations over what motivated Albayrak to resign are floating in the air. The most widely accepted one seems to be the one that Albayrak was reportedly unhappy over the central bank governor’s appointment. He was largely blamed for Turkey’s economic woes and the Lira’s depreciating value rally in the market. While his resignation letter suggested that he is quitting due to health reasons, rumours of him preparing for presidential candidacy to replace Erdoğan are all thick in the air. Succession in AKP and Turkey particularly in the Erdoğan and Albayrak context rose to prominence when Erdoğan announced natural gas reserves in the Black Sea and Albayrak took center stage. In fact, popular columnist Murat Yetkin in his piece quoted a source and said, “This is the first time I witness Mr. Tayyip Erdoğan pause his speech and wait for someone else to finish his.” He was not speaking of Energy Minister Fatih Dönmez, but Albayrak.”
A cabinet reshuffle is due in Turkey while the opposition is calling for early elections after calling Albayrak’s resignation- a state crisis. Erdoğan reportedly made a lot of senior party leaders and bureaucrats unhappy while making way for Albayrak’s rise in the party and the government. Albayrak was neither politically astute nor enjoyed any clout. The only trump card in his hand was that he was Erdoğan’s son-in-law. Time will tell us what made him resign and whether he will continue in active public life but this entire incident has certainly affected brand Erdoğan.
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