Are we counting days to the end of Qatar’s blockade?
On Friday, Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan al Saud- hinting at a possible resolution of the dispute with Qatar- said, “We have made significant progress in the last few days thanks to the continuing efforts of Kuwait. We hope this progress can lead to a final agreement which looks within reach & I can say I am somewhat optimistic that we’re close to finalizing an agreement between all the nations in the dispute.” The Saudi Foreign Minister’s last tweet, in fact, is in appreciation of the Kuwaiti & American roles in resolving the crisis.
In 2017, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Bahrain snapped ties with Qatar over allegations of “interference in internal affairs & supporting terrorism.” This was followed by the quartet sealing land, sea borders and air spaces, ousting Qatari nationals from their respective countries and calling back their citizens residing in Qatar. Doha was presented with a set of 13 demands for the resolution of the crisis, shortly after the blockade began, which included the shutting down of the Al Jazeera TV news network, closing down of the Turkish military base & reconsidering its ties with Iran. Doha, back then, rejected any demand that undermined its sovereignty.
Fast forward three years, after days of hints from Doha and Riyadh of possible progress, the Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani said, “We are hopeful that things will move in the right direction right now.” Kuwait and Oman, the two regional countries that played a crucial role of trying to mediate between the countries right from the start of the crisis, welcomed the progress. Along with Saudi, UAE and Egypt also welcomed the news without providing any further details on whether they would also follow Saudi’s suit and restore ties with Qatar.
The timing of a potential resolution of the Qatar blockade is crucial. Riyadh’s announcement of the progress in talks with Qatar, along with the conspicuous silence of the other three allies of the blockading quartet, comes at a time when Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman faces an uncertain and a possibly rocky relationship with Washington in the days to come. On November 27, the Financial Times had reported that Saudi Arabia seeks to resolve the crisis as a ‘gift to Joe Biden.’ On the other hand, former US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law & advisor- Jared Kushner- made a quick visit to Qatar and Saudi Arabia to try & negotiate a way out of the Gulf crisis to score that final foreign policy victory goal before leaving office.
The news of a potential resolution has given hope but will certainly take some more time. The Qatari Foreign Minister said, “We cannot predict whether it’s going to be imminent and it’s going to resolve the whole issue in one day.” Challenges remain & have rather aggravated than what it was in 2017. Not only will Qatar’s relations with Iran remain a point of contention but Qatar’s relations with Turkey could also come in the spotlight. Turkey’s ties with Saudi, UAE and Egypt are significantly strained. If we’re looking at a reconciliation of the entire quartet with Qatar, the presence of the Turkish military base will not be taken well. Maritime navigation issues have emerged as another sticking point where Egypt and Saudi condemned Qatar’s interception of two Bahraini vessels conducting a maritime exercise on November 25 in the Arabian Sea. Also, one needs to account for the consequences on the relations between Saudi and the rest of the blockading quartet, if the former goes ahead and individually restores ties with Qatar. This is particularly so because Saudi and UAE relations are not at their best owing to the tensions in OPEC over the oil output quota issues.
Qatar remains steadfast in its foreign policy positions, particularly with reference to Iran, Turkey, Israel and Palestine. Saudi’s interest in resolving the crisis need not necessarily translate into an instantaneous reconciliation of the four blockading countries with Qatar. Qatar’s support for the Muslim Brotherhood will remain unacceptable for the Egyptian regime, lowering chances of Cairo making up with Doha. The vessel intervention episode has reduced the chances of Bahrain warming up to Qatar, at least for now. The UAE has been one of the fiercest critics of Qatar & would rather join hands with Israel in creating an anti-Iran brigade rather than strengthening the Gulf coalition against Iran. With all these permutations and combinations, this could just be the start of another long read in the Gulf.
Other Stories
Turkey, Europe & the EU Summit
Ahead of the crucial December 10 EU Summit, all is not well between Turkey and Europe. European Foreign Ministers, on Monday, said that Turkey has not mended its way to help resolve the Eastern Mediterranean crisis with the EU particularly Greece and Cyprus. EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell, who chaired the 27 EU Foreign Ministers’ meeting, said, “We have not seen a fundamental change of direction in Turkey’s behaviour. On the contrary, in several aspects the situation has worsened.”
In October, the European Union had given Turkey time till December to mend its ways in the Eastern Mediterranean or face consequences. This along with Borrell’s statements implies the possibility of the EU imposing economic sanctions on Turkey. Turkey’s exploration of hydrocarbons in contested waters has strained ties with Greece, Cyprus and Europe, at large. The EU is also concerned with Turkey’s actions in Libya and Syria and with Russia. German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, who unsuccessfully tried mediating between Greece and Turkey twice, said that, “There will be a decision at this summit. There have been repeated Turkish provocations. So, the summit will decide how to handle it.” Germany is the current holder of the EU presidency & Berlin’s nod to potential sanctions on Turkey is key. Greece has accused Germany of failing the leadership test & of “appeasement.”
Meanwhile, weeks after his “Turkey’s future is in Europe,” remarks, Turkish President Recep Tayyıp Erdoğan said that EU’s proposed sanctions on Turkey are not a problem. He added that it is Europe that leaves the negotiation table, always while Turkey continues to stand up straight. Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu also said that the EU needs to be fair and honest & if they think with common sense, ties can be improved.
Interesting read heads up: https://www.ft.com/content/58866070-51df-4386-be3f-58738a23996c. Unrelated to the Middle East but do catch up on this piece on an EU summit that could shape German chancellor’s Angela Merkel’s legacy, nine months before she quits political life.
Iran claims some involved in the assassination of nuclear scientist arrested
Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, an adviser to the Iranian Parliamentary Speaker, said, “The perpetrators of the assassination, some of who have been identified & even arrested by security forces will not escape justice.”
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran’s top nuclear scientist, was killed outside Tehran on November 27. Iran has blamed Israel & an exiled opposition group for the attack. Israel has neither denied nor claimed responsibility or a possible role in the assassination. Amir-Abdollahian even added that, “Were the Zionists (Israel) able to do this alone and without the cooperation of, for example, the American (intelligence) service or another service? They certainly could not do that.”
The assassination comes as Iran continues to increase its nuclear stockpile while US President-elect Joe Biden has proposed to renegotiate the JCPOA and engage with Iran.
Interesting read heads up: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-iran-is-already-lurking-for-israelis-visiting-the-persian-gulf-1.9357844. As Israel & UAE open their countries to each other, Mossad fears that Iran has already started stalking Israelis visiting the UAE.
Pope Francis to visit Iraq
In what will be a first, Pope Francis will visit Iraq in March 2021. The visit, which will be for four days from March 5-8, is at the invitation of the Iraqi government & the Iraqi Catholic Church. The Pope is due to visit Baghdad, Erbil, Mosul, Qaraqosh in the plain of Nineveh- which is a Christian dominated province- and Ur, a city linked to the Old Testament figure Abraham, who is also the father of all three monotheistic religions- Christianity, Islam & Judaism.
The Pope’s visit comes at the backdrop of Iraq’s once vibrant but small Christian community’s severe persecution by the Islamic State.
India & the Middle East
Army chief on a historic visit to the United Arab Emirates & Saudi Arabia
Army Chief General MM Naravane is scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates from December 9 to December 14. This will be the first ever visit by an Indian Army Chief to the two countries and comes shortly after External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar’s visit to UAE and Bahrain. General Naravane is scheduled to call upon his Emirati & Saudi counterpart and meet other senior military officials to discuss ways to enhance defence relations & cooperation.
New Delhi’s ties with the wider Gulf region have stepped up significantly & certainly at the cost of the latter’s traditionally close ties with Pakistan. Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi’s comments on the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and Saudi’s position on Kashmir angered Riyadh straining ties and also Saudi’s financial assistance to Pakistan. Pakistani Army Chief General Qamar Ahmed Bajwa had to rush to Riyadh in a bid to pacify the Saudis but the friction remains.
Also, the Army Chief’s visit to Abu Dhabi & Riyadh is in tandem with India’s alliances with respective countries in the region & the geopolitical alliances being formed in the Middle East. India’s growing engagements with Saudi and UAE while relations with Turkey remain cold explain the dynamics of New Delhi’s foreign policy positions and the power politics in the region.
PM Modi & Qatari Emir speak on the phone
Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani over the phone on Tuesday. The two leaders discussed cooperation in investment flows & energy security. PM Modi & the Qatari Emir decided to establish a special Task Force to facilitate more Qatari investments in India.
One of Qatar’s big investment deals in the energy sector was the 2019 Qatar Investment Authority’s $450 million investment for 25.1% stake in Adani’s Mumbai unit.