Erdoğan, Macron & Bad Blood
French President Emmanuel Macron’s “Islam is in crisis” comment, his defense for the caricatures republished by Charlie Hebdo & the beheading of French teacher Samuel Paty reignited tensions with Turkish President Recep Tayyıp Erdoğan & the Muslim world, at large. But the Macron-Erdoğan spat was for the world to see.
Macron and Erdoğan have always had uneasy relations. In August 2017, Macron had said that having to talk to President Erdoğan was one reason why being a head of state is not as cool as what people thought. In fact, Erdoğan had reportedly raised this issue personally with Macron in a subsequent interaction. In November 2019, Macron said that NATO was experiencing a “brain death” because of one member- in this case Turkey- going against the alliance’s interests in the Middle East.
After Samuel Paty’s murder, Macron said- “Samuel is our will to break terrorism, reduce Islamists & live as free citizens in our country. We will continue.” Erdoğan, in response, said that Macron needed a mental health check which triggered a wave of condemnations from across the world including an indirect swipe by India. France recalled its ambassador from Turkey for consultations & summoned Ankara’s envoy to Paris to raise objection to the Turkish President’s remarks. Erdoğan also urged the Turkish nation to collectively boycott French goods.
So, along with an ice-cold rapport between the two leaders, French & Turkish policies in the region- Syria, Libya, Nagorno Karabakh & the Eastern Mediterranean- run parallel to each other. France has come out of its way to support Greece and Cyprus in the Eastern Mediterranean dispute with Turkey. Ankara and Paris back warring sides in the war in Libya & the Nagorno Karabakh clashes. France has accused Turkey of backing “radical Islamists,” among the rebels fighting the Syrian regime. Turkey, meanwhile, accused France of abetting terrorism after Macron met a delegation of the Syrian YPG or People’s Protection Units- who are designated as a terrorist organization by Turkey. France has repeatedly raised the issue of foreign intervention in Libya and in Iraq- two countries with an overt Turkish presence.
However, experts are rightly suggesting that this is a battle both the leaders want. France is headed to elections in 2022 & Turkey in 2023, as of now- unless snap elections are announced. Multiple surveys are beginning to suggest that Erdoğan’s domestic approval rates are dipping & it is necessary for him to fan nationalist sentiments and keep his conservative base intact, if not add on to it. Macron’s comments to “reform Islam,” helps him keep the far-right at bay. Also, standing up to Turkey- particularly in the context of the Eastern Mediterranean conflict- helps him establish himself as the foremost defender of European values.
Macron hasn’t responded to the Turkish President’s remarks, yet. Turkey has been given time till December to give up on its unilateral actions in the Eastern Mediterranean. When the EU summit reconvenes next month, we need to see if France joins the Greece-Cyprus bandwagon to impose sanctions on Turkey over its explorations in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The misery called Lebanon
In October 2019, after protests and demonstrations, the then Prime Minister of Lebanon Saad Hariri stepped down saying it is a response to the will and the demand of thousands of Lebanese for change. A year later, it feels like things have come a full circle with Hariri all set to make a comeback as the country’s premier for the fourth time.
Lebanon is witnessing its worst economic crisis since the civil war of the 90s. The Lebanese Lira is in a freefall, poverty, hunger, unemployment, crime, food prices have all shot up. To add to the misery was the Beirut Port explosion- considered to be one of the world’s most powerful non-nuclear explosions- that killed over 200 people and caused $15 billion in property damage. The dingy boats that left the Lebanese coast with Syrian & Palestinian refugees towards Europe is also seeing Lebanese citizens escape the country. The common denominator in the protests, the revolution, the Beirut Port explosions & the economic crisis are the country’s political class who remain nonchalant & arguably the only reason why Lebanon is where it is today.
Hariri’s 2019 resignation was prompted by the revolution’s demand of an independent, technocratic government. Academic Hassan Diab followed him next & resigned after the Beirut explosions. In his speech while stepping down he said, “We tried carrying the Lebanese demand for change. But, between us and change are very thick walls.” Diab was then followed by Lebanon’s envoy to Germany- Mustapha Adib- who was backed by three former PMs including Hariri. He remained a PM-designate and never managed to form a government because of challenges posed by political parties particularly the Hezbollah & the Amal movement over cabinet formation. Speculations about the next PM casually began to fly all over Lebanon & the region when Hariri, in an interview, said that he was a natural candidate for the position & got subsequently nominated by the parliament.
Hariri doesn’t enjoy people’s support, at the moment, and is facing roadblocks to his cabinet formation plans because of opposition from the Hezbollah & the Christian blocs- particularly the Free Patriotic Movement or the FPM and the Lebanese Forces. In fact, former Foreign Minister, son-in-law of the Lebanese President- Gebran Bassil is being called out as the main obstacle for government formation, at the moment.
Lebanon is staring at a possibility of running out of basic hard money to acquire vital imports like food, medicine and fuel, at this time. A new government, in this case led by Hariri, needs to commit to political & economic reforms to help gain access to crucial IMF assistance and international aid. All political blocs, on paper, committed to French President Emmnauel Macron’s plan for reforms. Two months since the Beirut Port explosion & there is no sight of a new government in Beirut, yet.
F-35s, Israel & the Arab World:
The news of ties normalizing between the United Arab Emirates and Israel was global headlines for days together and a virtual celebration. Amid all the smiles was a contentious fighter jet deal that was hanging by the thread.
One precondition of the normalization deal between Abu Dhabi, Washington and Tel Aviv was the sale of 50 Lockheed Martin F-35 jets to the UAE. Presently, Israel is the only country in the Middle East with the F-35 jets. Shortly after the normalization deal, Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu came out against the arms deal that upset the Emiratis. So much so, a trilateral meeting between the three was called off by the UAE because the latter expected that Netanyahu won’t air his objections about the deal publicly.
Weeks after the uncertainty over the U.S-UAE F-35 deal, Netanyahu & Israeli Defence Minister Benny Gantz, in a joint statement, declared that they will not oppose the F-35 deal with the UAE. They further added that the change in position was because the U.S reiterated its commitment to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge in the region.
As of now, U.S President Donald Trump notified the U.S Congress of the sale of 50 F-35 jets to the UAE. The notification could divide the house with some Congressmen likely to raise objections to the sale of jets because of the Emirati campaign in Yemen.
Also, UAE’s adversary in the region- Qatar has also reportedly placed a request to buy the F-35. An Israeli minister even added that they won’t have problems with the sale of F-35s to Qatar. Qatar and UAE are at loggerheads after the latter snapped ties with the former in 2017 accusing Doha of funding terrorism. The possibility of the sale of the F-35s to Qatar can potentially worsen ties between UAE and the U.S & even between UAE and Israel, unless Israel shows some resistance to the deal.
Meanwhile, reports are beginning to emerge of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman indicating Riyadh’s interest to buy the F-35s to U.S President Donald Trump. However, he has refused to make any concessions including normalization of ties with Israel in return for the sale of F-35 jets from the U.S. Saudi and Israel have long suspected to have maintained backdoor diplomacy with no formal ties despite Saudi leading the Arab world’s demand for an independent Palestinian state and a boycott of Israel. A Wall Street Journal report suggest that King Salman, the Crown Prince’s father was shocked at UAE’s decision to normalize ties with Israel while MBS wants to move ahead from the past and forge business with Israel.
The prospects of Israel’s normalization drive are subject to the continuation of the Trump presidency in White House. Hypothetically, even if Trump comes back to power, the other remaining Arab countries will cautiously decide on going ahead with normalization keeping in mind domestic sentiments if not their commitment to the Palestinian cause. And a possible Biden presidency could be a complete make or break.
Turkey & the Arab trade wars
Barring Qatar, Turkey’s relations with the Arab world from Egypt to UAE and Saudi Arabia have been extremely rocky. But, despite strong undercurrents of political tensions in the regions, economic ties continued to flourish. But, those glorious days seem to be in danger.
Reports of Turkish exporters facing problems while conducting business with multiple Arab countries notably Saudi Arabia and Morocco have come to the forefront. In fact, Turkish business groups had written to Riyadh seeking better trade relations. A Turkish newspaper reported that Saudi Arabia was to impose an official embargo on Turkish products from September-end. The Saudi government, however, denied those reports. But, the Riyadh Chamber of Commerce’s Chairman tweeted and said no investment, no imports, no tourism and that they will not deal with anything Turkish. This is the least we can do towards the continued Turkish hostility and insults towards our country he added. On a lighter note, a Saudi fast food chain replaced “Turkish burgers” with “Greek burgers” in their menu and tweeted that they believe in their duties towards the motherland with the hashtag boycott Turkish products campaign.
The Moroccan government, meanwhile, announced that it will impose restrictions on Turkish goods and severe restrictions on Turkish businesses working out the country. Ankara and Rabat have had a free trade agreement (FTA) since 2004. Morocco said that the trade agreement is “unequal” and that the economy has incurred massive losses because of trade imbalances.
Egypt has been at the forefront of efforts to create a unified Arab response to Turkey. There have been multiple voices coming out Cairo seeking a re-examination of trade volumes with Ankara and believe that a unified Arab stand to reduce trade or even possibly impose economic sanctions on Turkey is needed.
Turkish exports, at large, have been on a decline, this year. Exports to Arab countries make up almost 19% of total Turkish exports. Iraq is the top buyer of Turkish goods & makes up 28% of exports followed by the UAE (10%) Egypt (9.7%) Saudi Arabia (9.2%) Qatar leads the Arab direct investments into Turkey followed by the UAE and Saudi while Turkish direct investments in the Arab world are worth $2.4 billion.
At a time when the Turkish Lira is at record lows against the U.S dollar and the Euro along with the impact of COVID-19, the uncertainty around the U.S elections, stimulus, the looming danger of U.S sanctions with reference to Turkey S-400s and tensions with Europe, the Turkish economy can’t quite afford an economic embargo by the entire Arab world.
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Qatar Shura Council Elections
Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al Thani has announced that the first ever elections for the country’s Shura council or the top advisory panel will be held in October 2021. The elections have been delayed since 2006. Al Jazeera reports that after the elections, the powers of the 45 council members could be further expanded to include rights to dismiss ministers, approve budgets and propose legislations.
Pakistan sends aid to Syria
On Sunday, Syria’s state news agency published pictures of PIA flight from Islamabad to Damascus with medical aid for Syria. Days before that, the Syrian Parliamentary Speaker Hammouda Sabbagh met the Pakistani ambassador to Syria and discussed “strengthening parliamentary relations” between the two countries. Pakistan has traditionally been close to the Assad family, from the times of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and Hafez al-Assad respectively despite the Shia-Sunni disparity and in recent context, Pakistan’s close ties with Turkey and Saudi Arabia and their positions on the Assad regime.
Libya Peace Talks
After the October 23 permanent ceasefire deal between Libya’s warring parties, military officers of the Government of National Accord (GNA) based out of Tripoli in the west and the Libyan National Army (LNA) based out of Tobrouk met in the town of Ghadames to discuss the implementation of the ceasefire. The UN’s Libya envoy Stephanie Williams was also present at the meetings. The political leaders of the two sides are scheduled to meet on November 9 in Tunisia. Previous meetings have been held in Egypt, Morocco and Switzerland.
Algeria Referendum
November 1954: Liberation, November 2020: Change was the slogan for Algeria’s constitutional amendment bill campaign. Still, only 23.7% of the country voted for constitutional changes which are largely seen as means to silence the uprisings against the government in the country. The electoral board announced on Monday that majority of voters backed the changes. The provisions include presidential term limits, more power to the parliament and the judiciary in a country with a significantly powerful military. The new constitution also gives power to Algeria to intervene outside militarily.
Recommendations to read
https://newlinesmag.com/essays/requiem-for-a-revolution/by Zine Labidine Ghebouli on the Algerian Revolution.
https://www.synaps.network/post/life-in-damascus-syria on the transformations of Damascus- one of the world’s oldest inhabited cities- before and after the civil war.
https://newlinesmag.com/photo-essays/walk-by-the-wall/ a photo essay by Ali al-Baroodi on his life in Iraq’s second largest under Saddam Hussein, the Americans and ISIS.
Recommendations to watch
Netflix, in support of the Lebanese nation- which is regarded as the Arab world’s backbone of the film and television industry, has started a Made in Lebanon series with 34 films spanning various genres.